pink forecast 2012

this is maybe not news per say, but it is darned interesting.

under the auspices of NOAA, there is a yearly forecast for returning pink salmon later that year. humpies run in rather unpredictable cycles and as im sure you’re all aware, they are one year old fish when they return.   with most salmon there is soem idea as to if the year class was strong or not, and there are a few years to anticipate and for bad conditions to be weathered by the stock. with pinks, bad conditions can wipe out a run because they have only the one year to mature and return. this also means that in some ways pink salmon stocks are the most susceptible to shifts in ocean conditions or say exposure to massive amounts of sea lice from adjacent British columbian salmon farms.

anyway by capturing   or surveying outgoing fry in a few corridors of egress to the open ocean, the strength of the return can be predicted, the forecast also takes into account, oceanic conditions or weather cycles like el nino which can change the situation dramatically.

if you look at this page, you see that by and large the forecast is accurate (2006 being th eexecption) and you can see that the forecast is DOWN.

bad news is always interesting news no?


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