Fisheries Management Forecasting

News with Fins 02

2012 Upper Cook Inlet Sockeye Salmon Forecast

Alaska Department of Fish and Game Division of Commercial Fisheries: News Release

In 2011 the harvest of sockeye salmon by all user groups in UCI was 6.1 million, while the pre-season forecast was 4.4-4.8 million. The higher than expected harvest in 2011 was largely due to an above forecast run of age-2.3 sockeye salmon to the Kenai River (actual run 2.9 million). In 2011, the total run was 5.9 million to the Kenai River; 860,000 to the Kasilof River; and 564,000 to the Susitna.

By compiling years of records ADF&G scientists can formulate equations that help them to predict the size of future salmon runs. This information is also used to study trends in salmon runs over a long-term period in effort to prevent fishing beyond the Maximum Sustainable Yield (MSY).

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